Iran Retains Enough Nuclear Material for 10 Bombs Despite Military Strikes

More than five months after the start of military actions initiated by former U.S. President Donald Trump to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, experts and officials estimate that while the strikes slowed Iran's nuclear program, they did not stop it. Iran continues to prohibit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections at its most sensitive sites, leaving the exact status of its nuclear material unknown. However, UN inspectors estimate that Iran still maintains a stockpile sufficient for rapid development of up to ten nuclear bombs.

These assessments are based on the condition of three key sites. In Isfahan, where Iran stores most of its uranium enriched to 60 percent, enrichment facilities were severely damaged in June 2025 attacks, but the uranium stockpile likely remains accessible. U.S. intelligence agencies have confirmed Iran retains access through a narrow entry point under surveillance. This ongoing access is a major reason for concern that the strikes did not resolve the nuclear issue. Eli Granmeyer, an Iran expert and author of the Iran Nuclear Monitor project, told The New York Times that "the capability largely still exists."

At Natanz, the upper part of the site was damaged in 2025 strikes, and underground entrances were hit in March 2026. Construction continues near Mount Makuh, at a site intended for centrifuge production. At Fordow, once considered the most secure and advanced facility, four entrances remain buried under rubble after a heavy bombing in June 2025. Analysts note that this year's strikes mainly targeted air defense systems and research centers.

Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association stated that the "maximum pressure" policy and military actions have not destroyed Iran's nuclear capability. Physicist and Iran expert James Acton estimated that if Iran is not deterred, it could produce a bomb within less than a year, possibly even sooner. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi acknowledged the strikes "significantly set back the program," but emphasized that major unresolved issues will remain even after military operations end.