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UAE Begins Reaching Out to Iran Before the War Is Over

By ד"ר יואל גוז'נסקי
Translated & summarized from N12 by baba
The story · English

Contacts between senior Emirati and Iranian officials suggest the start of a new regional detente after the war, even if there is no breakthrough yet and no fundamental change in relations. In an analysis by Dr. Yoel Guzansky, the meetings are portrayed as an early sign that Abu Dhabi and Tehran want to return to dialogue, at least in a limited form.

The UAE, which sees Iran as its main external threat, shifted toward pragmatism at the end of the last decade after the 2019 attacks on tankers and energy facilities in the Gulf exposed the costs of confrontation. Abu Dhabi also concluded that the United States did not want a large military role in the region, so Gulf states needed to take greater responsibility for their own security. That led to expanded diplomatic and economic ties with Iran, while the UAE also pursued a policy of “zero conflicts” alongside stronger defenses and closer cooperation with the United States and Israel.

During the current war, Iranian attacks on Emirati territory pushed the UAE toward a tougher line, including reported strikes inside Iran that Abu Dhabi did not claim. Even so, Emirati officials kept the door open to talks. The article says Mohammed bin Zayed reportedly urged Donald Trump not to continue striking Iran, and that the UAE also transferred billions of dollars in frozen funds to Tehran last month, apparently in exchange for ending the attacks. Similar understandings may exist for Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while in recent weeks Iran attacked only Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.

The key point, the analysis argues, is that both sides are meeting before the war has ended because continued escalation serves neither of them. For Abu Dhabi, the status quo is unbearable because instability threatens its role as a global financial, commercial and logistics hub. The UAE still fears Iran and doubts American security guarantees, but it now seeks mechanisms to manage a lasting rivalry and reduce the risk of further conflict. The article says this broader Gulf shift toward flexible diplomacy is likely to shape the regional order after the war, even if it disappoints Israel.

Read the original at N12
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100% centerFirst: N12 · Jun 13

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