UAE Balances Renewed Iran Ties with Deepening Security Alliance with Israel
In the wake of recent regional security tensions, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is pursuing a dual strategy of cautiously restoring economic and diplomatic relations with Iran while simultaneously strengthening its security cooperation with Israel and the United States. This approach follows a series of Iranian missile and drone attacks that severely impacted Dubai's business district five months ago, marking the UAE's most serious security crisis to date.
According to the Financial Times, signs of rapprochement include resumed flights between Iran and Dubai, the return of some 20,000 Iranian residents to the Emirates, and a gradual recovery in trade through UAE ports. Three brothers of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed are reportedly managing dialogue channels with Tehran, with senior officials from both sides reestablishing direct contact after months of conflict. Despite these developments, Abu Dhabi continues to view Iran as a strategic threat and anticipates that the current ceasefire could quickly unravel.
To maintain deterrence, the UAE is expanding its security ties with Israel, which provided Iron Dome missile defense systems and the new "Magen Or" laser system during the conflict. The Israeli embassy in Abu Dhabi has doubled in size, and Israeli defense companies are now regularly operating in the country. Cooperation is also growing in technology, artificial intelligence, ports, storage, and infrastructure sectors.
The conflict exposed vulnerabilities in the UAE's economic model, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz reducing activity at Jebel Ali port to about 10% capacity, Western airlines limiting flights to Dubai, and declines in hotel occupancy and restaurant operations. To reduce dependence on the strait, DP World plans to build two new terminals in Fujairah, and the national oil company ADNOC is accelerating construction of a pipeline to double oil export capacity to the UAE's eastern coast. Abu Dhabi is also exploring ways to better protect critical infrastructure such as oil pipelines, data centers, and energy facilities, including moving infrastructure underground and diversifying supply chains.
The Financial Times characterizes the UAE's policy as pragmatic resilience, aiming to simultaneously manage deterrence, dialogue, commerce, and infrastructure alternatives without choosing between Iran and Israel. However, officials acknowledge that some vulnerabilities remain, particularly regarding energy facilities within Iran's missile range and the economy's reliance on tourism and trade, which will only improve if regional conflict stabilizes.
