Trump Floats a Possible Endgame Move Against Iran as the UAE Deepens Ties with Tehran

The president of the United States is weighing a step that until now had been seen as an American “endgame” against Iran, while one of the closest allies of the Americans and Israel in the region is tightening ties with Tehran. Bloomberg revealed that senior security officials from the United Arab Emirates and Iran met for the first time since the war began, and sources familiar with the details, speaking to the U.S. network, said the meeting marked “a sharp turn for both sides.”

In the afternoon, Donald Trump publicly threatened, in a post on Truth Social and in an interview, to seize the Iranian “oil island” of Kharg in the Persian Gulf, but he admitted himself that “it is not certain the country has the courage to do so.” A Pentagon official and two senior U.S. administration officials told CNN that U.S. military plans to try to take control of the island had been developed over months, but were repeatedly delayed because the operation was considered too dangerous. According to the officials, the assessment in the White House and the Pentagon is that taking Kharg, or destroying the energy infrastructure on it, would severely damage Iran’s economy and reduce its capabilities to the point that it could not continue the war. However, they made clear to Trump that such an action would likely require large ground forces and could lead to heavy casualties. Because of these considerations, the Pentagon and the White House viewed any move to seize Kharg as a “finishing move,” a last resort that could change the balance of the war, but at a heavy cost. The U.S. military has previously struck military facilities on Kharg from the air, but those attacks deliberately avoided hitting the island’s critical energy infrastructure.

Trump’s threats came after two days of exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran, and just before the opening of the World Cup, which will be hosted by the United States together with Canada and Mexico. And these threats, and the exchanges of fire, came after the first meeting since the start of the war between officials in the UAE and Iran. According to the sources who told Bloomberg about it, the contacts were initiated mainly because the wealthy Gulf state wanted to reach calm with a regime it sees as an enemy, but understands will remain in power. UAE leaders want to preserve their economic plans, which include investments worth billions of dollars to increase oil output and establish artificial intelligence data centers.

The relationship is also important to Tehran, since before the war the UAE was one of its largest trading partners and a major route for the export of sanctioned Iranian oil. Since the war began at the end of February, Iran has attacked the UAE more than any other country. It fired nearly 3,000 missiles and drones at the UAE. The vast majority were intercepted, but at least 13 people were killed, and oil and gas facilities, ports and hotels suffered damage worth billions of dollars. Abu Dhabi responded with numerous strikes of its own, also using Iron Dome deployed with its personnel in the country, and adopted the toughest line among its Arab neighbors toward the Islamic Republic.

But now the UAE appears to be following the path of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which were also hit by Iran and its proxies but are trying to advance diplomacy to reduce tensions. This comes after the UAE tried at the start of the war, unsuccessfully, to persuade Saudi Arabia and Qatar to join a joint response intended to deter the Iranians. However, the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the fragile ceasefire since the beginning of April, and the slow progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran have led to a change in direction. Now, according to the Bloomberg report, the UAE’s main goal is to minimize further harm to its economy and security as much as possible.

There are signs that these efforts are bearing fruit. Iran has not attacked the UAE since the strike on the Barakah nuclear power plant last month. This week, while the confrontation between the United States and Iran intensified, Tehran chose to attack Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.