Opposition Ensures Ultra-Orthodox Parties' Loyalty to Netanyahu Amid Political Standoff

About a week and a half after the Knesset approved the Basic Law on Torah Study and the law preventing the arrest of draft dodgers, the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism (UTJ) has refused to give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a full loyalty pledge. However, the opposition bloc may end up providing Netanyahu with the political backing he seeks from the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Netanyahu's real aim was to secure a political insurance policy from the ultra-Orthodox factions, demanding a clear declaration of unwavering support. Yet, UTJ members, particularly from the Lithuanian faction Degel HaTorah, stated their allegiance is only to whoever resolves the status of yeshiva students, not to the opposition bloc. The Hasidic faction Agudat Yisrael even signaled openness to cooperating with former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, indicating a willingness to explore alternatives.

This stance prompted a shift in Netanyahu's office, with government secretary Yossi Fox blaming Degel HaTorah leader Rabbi Dov Lando for the failure to pass the draft law in subsequent readings. Degel HaTorah countered that Netanyahu himself admitted to lacking a majority for the law, which Lando had supported. Following Netanyahu's retreat, Lando publicly distanced himself from automatic loyalty to the opposition bloc.

Both sides benefit from maintaining the appearance of a deep crisis. Netanyahu projects strength to his base by refusing to fully yield to the ultra-Orthodox parties, while UTJ seeks to calm frustrated voters by threatening to defect from the opposition if the yeshiva student status is not resolved. However, political realities show the opposition bloc lacks viable alternatives to Netanyahu, as Eisenkot refuses to negotiate with the ultra-Orthodox parties or compromise on a universal draft law.

Shas leader Aryeh Deri recognized this political trap early, understanding that the ultra-Orthodox public has no alternative but Netanyahu. Shas, with a broader voter base including traditionalists who identify with Netanyahu, has already declared unequivocal support for the prime minister. Deri stated, "We support Prime Minister Netanyahu, period. We have no one else to support now. Eisenkot leads a camp of hatred against everything related to Judaism. Our bloc is our bloc. We have complaints but no alternative."

Thus, despite public threats from UTJ, the ultra-Orthodox parties' path back to Netanyahu is clear, while Netanyahu maintains a narrative of conflict over the draft issue to minimize damage within his base.