Opposition Ensures Ultra-Orthodox Parties' Loyalty to Netanyahu Amid Political Standoff

About a week and a half after the Knesset approved the Basic Law on Torah Study and the law preventing the arrest of draft dodgers, the ultra-Orthodox faction United Torah Judaism (UTJ) has refused to give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a full loyalty pledge. However, the opposition appears poised to provide Netanyahu with the political backing he sought from the ultra-Orthodox parties. Netanyahu’s real aim was to secure a political insurance policy from these factions, a clear declaration of unwavering support regardless of circumstances. Yet, UTJ members declined to play this role, with the Lithuanian faction (Degel HaTorah) stating their allegiance is only to whoever secures the status of yeshiva students, and the Hasidic faction (Agudat Yisrael) even considering cooperation with former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot.

This stance prompted a shift in Netanyahu’s office, exemplified by government secretary Yossi Fox blaming Degel HaTorah leader Rabbi Dov Lando for the failure to pass the draft law’s second and third readings. Degel HaTorah countered that Netanyahu himself admitted to MK Uri Maklev that he lacked a majority for the bill. Despite the apparent crisis, all sides benefit from maintaining the appearance of a deep rift. Netanyahu portrays himself as firm and not entirely controlled by the ultra-Orthodox parties, while the parties present a tough front to their frustrated voters.

In a podcast interview, Netanyahu adopted a combative tone against his natural allies, condemning the phrase "we will die and not enlist," which neither Aryeh Deri nor Moshe Gafni ever said. Netanyahu’s tactic is to create a straw man to oppose publicly, allowing him to appear as forcing a painful compromise on the ultra-Orthodox. Meanwhile, UTJ needs to show strength to its disappointed electorate, threatening to defect to the opposition bloc if the yeshiva status issue is not resolved and signaling willingness to approve the draft law even at the cost of turning their backs on Netanyahu.

However, the opposition bloc currently offers no viable alternative for the ultra-Orthodox parties. Gadi Eizenkot has ruled out negotiations with them unless the draft law applies universally, making a Netanyahu-led government the only realistic option. Shas leader Aryeh Deri recognized this political trap early, declaring unequivocal support for Netanyahu, emphasizing that the ultra-Orthodox have no alternative. Deri’s party also relies on non-ultra-Orthodox voters who identify with Netanyahu’s leadership.

Thus, despite the rhetoric and media spectacle, the ultra-Orthodox parties’ path back to Netanyahu’s camp is already paved, while Netanyahu manages the optics of discord to minimize damage to his base. The political stalemate ultimately reinforces Netanyahu’s dependence on the ultra-Orthodox factions after the upcoming elections.