Netanyahu Prioritizes Ultra-Orthodox Support Despite Growing Likud Voter Frustration
Recent polls and conversations within Likud strongholds reveal that many voters remain loyal to Netanyahu despite numerous crises, including the recent deadly attacks and ongoing security challenges. These voters largely accept Netanyahu's narrative blaming various state institutions for failures, viewing him as a victim rather than a culprit. They have forgiven him for issues such as rising living costs, rampant crime, educational system failures, and the prolonged war since January 2023.
However, a significant source of frustration among some Likud voters is Netanyahu's continued concessions to ultra-Orthodox parties. Nearly three years into a brutal war with over a thousand soldiers killed and tens of thousands wounded, the Israeli military faces severe manpower shortages. The Chief of Staff and military representatives have repeatedly warned of a collapse due to insufficient soldiers, yet Netanyahu remains unyielding in his political compromises with the ultra-Orthodox.
The controversial conscription law proposed by Boaz Bismuth, chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, is widely seen as ineffective since it fails to recruit ultra-Orthodox soldiers, a fact acknowledged by the military and ultra-Orthodox rabbis alike. Meanwhile, reservists endure exhausting service with hundreds of days in the field, leading to job losses and family hardships. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have promised solutions, but commanders and soldiers report no real progress.
Despite Likud's drop from 32 to around 23 seats in polls, Netanyahu is determined to regain lost voters while simultaneously pushing legislation to equate Torah study with military service and prevent arrests of ultra-Orthodox draft dodgers. His primary goal is to maintain a united right-wing bloc, especially securing ultra-Orthodox parties' loyalty to block any coalition negotiations with centrist figures like Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett.
Netanyahu's insistence on ultra-Orthodox support stems from the bloc's historical role as kingmakers and his need to prevent rival coalitions. Recent tensions with the Yahadut HaTorah faction, including a handwritten letter from Rabbi Dov Lando expressing lost trust in Netanyahu, highlight the fragile alliance. Netanyahu demands ultra-Orthodox leaders pledge not to negotiate with opposition figures post-election to ensure his continued premiership, even if it means governing without a majority and facing new elections.
In summary, Netanyahu is willing to sacrifice some Likud voter goodwill to secure ultra-Orthodox backing, viewing this as essential for maintaining power amid Israel's ongoing political and security crises.
