Internal Power Struggle in Tehran Threatens to Ignite Wider Middle East Conflict

Iran is currently experiencing a deep internal power struggle between its civilian leadership and the Revolutionary Guards, which risks escalating regional tensions. The civilian government, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, is pushing for diplomatic dialogue with the United States to avoid a broader regional war. However, the Revolutionary Guards continue to enforce a military escalation strategy on the ground, undermining diplomatic efforts.

This division is exacerbated by the prolonged absence of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since the assassination of his father in February 2026 and communicates only through written messages. His absence leaves no authoritative figure to mediate between the opposing factions, allowing the hardliners to create facts on the ground and compel the parliament to retroactively legitimize their actions.

The Revolutionary Guards' influence is evident in recent events, such as their prominent presence at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral and the censorship of official speeches. The parliament, dominated by hardliners, has taken steps to undermine diplomatic channels, including declaring the Islamabad memorandum dead and advancing legislation to secure the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf militarily. Iranian officials have also issued severe threats against Ukraine, claiming the entire country is within missile range.

Experts note that the civilian leadership may seek to strengthen its position, aware that the Revolutionary Guards face limitations in acquiring new weapons globally. Nonetheless, the security establishment continues to prioritize escalation as the only means to ensure its survival. The current chaos in Tehran means Washington can no longer rely on moderate rhetoric from Iranian diplomats, as real power lies with the Revolutionary Guards' aggressive actions.

The ongoing internal conflict in Tehran thus poses a significant risk of igniting a wider conflict in the Middle East, with no clear resolution in sight due to the leadership vacuum and competing power centers within Iran.