Western Concerns Grow Over Safety of Iranian Political Leaders Amid Internal Power Struggle
Western sources have expressed serious concerns about the safety of Iran's top political and civilian leaders who advanced the memorandum of understanding with the United States. Attempts to harm Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Ebrahim Raisi during mourning events and the funeral procession of Khamenei indicate a loosening of restraints by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership. A well-informed Western source told Israel Hayom that amid escalating internal disputes following the memorandum's signing, IRGC commanders might attempt to seize control of the civilian leadership and seek the removal of Raisi's government.
Araghchi recently communicated to American officials and mediators from Pakistan and Qatar that the political leadership lacks the power to secure the IRGC's agreement on key deal terms or to halt attacks on tankers and ships passing through the Gulf. This was highlighted in a conversation with Qatar's Prime Minister Khalid al-Thani, who demanded explanations after IRGC forces fired on a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. The political leaders face accusations from the IRGC of betrayal, with claims they exceeded their negotiation mandate by conceding on transit fees through Hormuz and uranium enrichment on Iranian soil.
Hardliners accuse the political leadership of hiding parts of the agreement with the US from other regime leaders, especially the IRGC commanders. The US administration, Israel, and regional countries are evaluating how to respond and whether there is potential to facilitate regime change, even if it would be a prolonged process. Qatar, acting as mediator and close to Iran, supports continuing diplomatic efforts despite the attacks, noting that military actions against Iran have failed and provoked Iranian retaliation in Hormuz. Oman shares Qatar's stance, while Saudi Arabia remains undecided. Meanwhile, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait are pushing for decisive measures against Iran through the Gulf Cooperation Council.
On Monday, President Raisi was attacked by extremist supporters shouting "Death to Raisi" during Khamenei's funeral procession, leaving him visibly shaken but protected by security. Foreign Minister Araghchi was also assaulted with stones while being chased in an alley during the funeral, with attackers waving flags and calling for his death. Government officials and supporters have demanded the arrest and prosecution of these extremists. Raisi's son and advisor, Yousef Pashaeian, defended the government's US relations policy on social media, condemning the attacks and warning that if the anger targets officials and undermines internal unity, it serves the enemy's interests.
