Western Intelligence Warns Iran May Strike Israel First Amid Rising Tensions

Western intelligence agencies assess that Iran might seek to provoke Israel into conflict and could potentially launch a first strike. This evaluation is based on Israel's apparent reluctance to enter another war and perceived cracks in Israel-US relations, which Iran may try to exploit. In anticipation of possible escalation over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to convene the security cabinet tomorrow.

Defense Minister Israel Katz stated during a security consultation with IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir and senior military officials that Israel is preparing for all scenarios, warning that any Iranian attack would be met with a crushing response. In an unusual statement, the Mossad revealed that Iran attempted to infiltrate operatives into Israel to assassinate senior figures, linked to a continued Iranian effort to retaliate for the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s relative.

The upcoming US presidential elections in November are seen as a potential restraint on American military response. Iran views Israeli involvement as potentially embarrassing to the US administration and capable of shaping the conflict’s narrative. Earlier, US President Donald Trump told Axios he is considering a "massive and unprecedented" strike on Iran and is close to making a decision. Trump said Israel would join within two minutes if requested but emphasized the US does not need Israel to initiate the attack. He also warned of consequences if Israel participates, likely referring to Iranian missile retaliation.

Trump noted that Iran wants to negotiate but is not ready to reach an agreement, stating, "They have not suffered enough pain yet." Axios cited regional sources familiar with mediation efforts who said Iran rejected the latest US proposal. Meanwhile, the IDF has informed authorities that Home Front Command instructions remain unchanged, with no public shelter openings ordered yet; any updates will be communicated through official channels.