Prolonged Rift Between Netanyahu and Trump Fuels Uncertainty Over Iran Policy

Israeli officials are on high alert not due to confirmed U.S. plans for a major strike on Iran, but because of uncertainty about President Donald Trump's intentions. Jerusalem fears a sudden decision could leave the Israeli Air Force insufficient time to coordinate an effective response acceptable to both Israel and the U.S., prompting costly preparations.

Israeli assessments suggest Trump still hopes to revive agreements with Iran, but Washington views ceasefire proposals from Qatar and Oman, offering a 10-day truce and suspension of the U.S. blockade, as primarily benefiting Iran by easing pressure and allowing oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. gains little from such a truce, as Iran's Revolutionary Guards remain firm on their demands regarding Hormuz. Washington faces a dilemma: escalate attacks on Iranian infrastructure to push Tehran back to negotiations or accept the ceasefire proposals, which only temporarily pause hostilities without resolving core issues.

Jerusalem believes Trump prefers escalation now, with three months remaining before U.S. midterm elections, rather than during or immediately before the vote. A trusted Israeli source highlighted that Israel’s main problem is the complete lack of clarity about Trump’s decisions and Israel’s inability to influence them. This is exacerbated by a recent breakdown in direct communication between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump, who previously spoke almost daily during the conflict. Netanyahu has also been unable to secure a meeting with Trump despite attempts.

The rift partly stems from Netanyahu’s opposition to transferring F-35 jets to Turkish President Erdogan, a Trump ally, and from Trump’s advisors, including Vice President J.D. Vance, warning that Netanyahu is pushing the U.S. toward an unpopular war. During a recent security cabinet meeting, Netanyahu had to leave to seek detailed updates from Washington, but spoke with Secretary of State Marco Rubio rather than Trump himself.

Further straining relations, Washington’s decision to finalize a civilian nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia without requiring normalization with Israel shocked Jerusalem. Under former President Joe Biden, Saudi normalization was a prerequisite for such an agreement. Israeli officials are trying to glean Washington’s intentions through the IDF and CENTCOM contacts, but even top U.S. military officials appear uninformed or instructed to maintain secrecy. This prolonged uncertainty reflects a deep mistrust between the Israeli and American leaderships, particularly Trump’s waning confidence in Netanyahu.