Gadi Eizenkot Surges Ahead in Israeli Prime Minister Betting Market, Outpacing Netanyahu

As Israel approaches its October elections, global betting markets reveal a surprising shift in political forecasts. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, leader of the newly launched "Yashar" party, has surged to a leading 42% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister, according to the Polymarket prediction platform. This marks a significant rise from around 20% earlier in June, propelled by his positioning as a leading security-centered centrist alternative.

Current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds 34% in the betting market, trailing Eizenkot by 8 percentage points. Netanyahu's political resilience and right-wing bloc loyalty maintain his standing, but factors such as the conclusion of his criminal trial testimony, ongoing public criticism over prolonged multi-front conflicts, and regional ceasefire agreements involving the US and Iran have capped his market potential.

Naftali Bennett, former Prime Minister and leader of the "Together" party, ranks third with 13%, unable so far to mount a breakthrough challenge despite opposition alliances including with Yair Lapid. Notably, former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, once a strong contender, has plummeted to under 1% in the market, reflecting investor skepticism about his prospects to form the next government.

Other candidates like Avigdor Lieberman hold 4%, while Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yair Lapid, Gilad Erdan, and Yoaz Hendel each have about 1%. The betting market, which has seen over $22 million in trading volume, serves as a dynamic indicator of shifting political momentum ahead of the elections.