Poll site shows Eisenkot overtaking Netanyahu for prime minister

A day after Donald Trump announced an agreement between the United States and Iran, the international betting site Polymarket is showing a dramatic shift in Israeli politics. The article says betting markets often track outcomes well because people risk real money, and it points to a major change in the race for prime minister.

In recent months, Benjamin Netanyahu had held a wide lead over Naftali Bennett, but Bennett's numbers rose after joining forces with Yair Lapid and then steadily weakened. Gadi Eisenkot is now the main beneficiary of that decline, gaining steadily and jumping sharply over the last two days. According to the site, Netanyahu, who was at 60 percent among bettors just three months ago, has fallen to around 30 percent or lower.

Eisenkot has risen to 45 percent and now leads Netanyahu by a double-digit margin, the first time he has topped the betting table for prime minister. Bennett briefly reached first place after the Lapid merger, but his support has since kept eroding. Netanyahu's odds have been slipping at a regular pace of about 5 percent each month.

The report also notes that since the announcement of the surrender agreement, Netanyahu has remained silent. He has not issued a statement on the deal, his last message was on Friday, followed only by a separate statement yesterday about the strike in the Dahieh. He has not released any videos or held a press conference. Avigdor Lieberman remains stable at 3 to 4 percent, with only slight occasional gains, and does not appear to affect the balance among the top three contenders.