Internal Polls Show Likud's Attacks May Be Hurting Vinter's Party

Internal polls conducted over the past two days suggest a sharp decline in support for Ofer Vinter's party, "Amcha Yisrael," according to reporter Barak Seri. While the Likud party continues its attacks on Vinter, some within Likud are concerned that this strategy could harm the broader right-wing bloc.

Sources within Likud expressed worry that attacking Vinter, especially if his party is struggling to pass the electoral threshold, is a "complete folly." They argue that Vinter represents a "last resort" for hundreds of thousands of right-wing voters who are disillusioned with the Likud, Smotrich, or Ben Gvir. If Vinter's party fails to enter the Knesset, these sources believe the entire right-wing bloc could collapse.

These Likud insiders estimate that some right-wing voters who previously distanced themselves from Netanyahu may have initially moved to Gadi Eisenkot or Avigdor Lieberman. However, Vinter's entry into the race offered them another option within the right-wing camp without returning to Likud. Some even believe Vinter's party has a unique potential to shift votes between different factions.

Despite these internal concerns, a Likud source stated that the attacks on Vinter are continuing "with full force." While unwilling to detail the findings of recent Likud internal checks, political sources familiar with the matter indicate a lack of consensus within Netanyahu's circle regarding this strategy. Some Likud members reportedly view the attacks as a mistake, noting that the right-wing camp has grown since Vinter's party entered the race. These same sources also suggest that Vinter's party could be a natural partner for the right-wing bloc after the elections.

Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party is also monitoring Vinter's situation. Their internal assessment was that if Vinter's supporters believed he wouldn't pass the electoral threshold, between half a mandate and 0.7 mandates could shift to Eisenkot. However, Vinter's recent performance above the threshold in a "Maariv" poll complicates this scenario. Political sources suggest Vinter's base includes right-wing voters who have moved away from Netanyahu, a demographic also targeted by "Yashar" and Yisrael Beiteinu, as well as voters the Likud hopes to win back.

Amidst Seri's claims of a decline in internal polls, the battle over "Amcha Yisrael" has gained new significance. The key question is whether this represents a temporary dip due to recent events and a focused campaign, or a genuine trend that could alter the distribution of votes within the right-wing camp.