Israeli Military Admits Gaza War Far From Decisive After Three Years

Israel is marking the official "October 7th Memorial Day" amidst the ongoing war in Gaza, now in its third year without a decisive outcome, and with Hamas continuing to govern the parts of the Strip not under Israeli control. Israeli security officials acknowledge that "the Gaza arena is far from being decided," over two and a half years after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Israel "a step away from victory." Despite the Israeli military controlling most of the Gaza Strip, "the simple truth is that Hamas still governs it," according to Yedioth Ahronoth.

Two Israeli military divisions control 64% of Gaza. A security official stated that Hamas, even if it wished to act, would encounter Israeli forces, asserting stable and strong Israeli control. The military is currently constructing a "vehicle barrier" including a wide canal and earthen berm, and conducting excavation work to prevent tunnels extending into Israel east of the "Yellow Line," which divides the controlled areas from Hamas-held territory.

While the war against Gazan civilians continues, the Israeli military claims its operations focus on "assassinating Hamas operatives without pause." However, the newspaper noted that Hamas's ability to maintain control after three years stems from its continued operational capacity and lack of disarmament, largely due to the absence of a political plan for Gaza's future. This stalemate allows Hamas to persist.

Israeli security officials report that all goods entering Gaza via the Kerem Shalom crossing are monitored, with food, fuel, and gas being supplied. However, Hamas intercepts these goods. The military acknowledges it cannot prevent Hamas from profiting from the approximately 600 trucks entering daily, as Hamas seizes the supplies, sells them to traders, and collects taxes, thereby funding its operations and maintaining its armed status.

Despite Hamas facing shortages in raw materials and ammunition, and having tens of thousands of operatives, it is limited in recruitment due to a lack of weapons and training capabilities. The military targets operatives during training. A security official dismissed the possibility of a political settlement, stating it hinges on Hamas disarmament, which he doubts will occur, as it would mean the end of the movement.