Three Years On, Hamas Remains in Gaza and Decisive Victory Eludes Israel

Three years after the October 7th attacks, Israeli security officials acknowledge that a decisive victory in Gaza remains distant, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's April 2024 declaration that Israel was "a stone's throw from victory." While significant military achievements have been made and IDF forces maintain a substantial presence, Hamas continues to govern the Strip. Security sources are assessing the three-year mark of the war, painting a complex picture of the situation in Gaza. Currently, IDF forces control approximately 64% of the Gaza Strip with two divisions and around 30 outposts. Security officials emphasize that defense lines have been completely reconfigured since the initial attack, with forces positioned "from within" rather than just at the border. "Hamas, even if it tries to do something, will encounter IDF forces on the front lines. We have defense from within. We are here with very stable and strong control," a senior security official told Ynet and Yediot Ahronot. The forces are completing a new anti-vehicle barrier, including a wide trench and an earth berm, on the eastern side of the "Yellow Line" that divides the Strip. This line separates the territory controlled by the IDF from that under Hamas rule. Statistical drilling is also being conducted every few meters to detect any tunnels extending into Israeli territory. Operational activity focuses on continuous targeted assassinations, with security sources reporting the elimination of 70 operatives, including three brigade commanders, in the past month alone. They stated, "We will act against operatives and kill them one by one. We are patiently waiting for the right moment to eliminate and strike with very low collateral damage."

A key challenge highlighted is Hamas's continued grip on the population, attributed to the lack of a clear political plan for Gaza's future. Despite stringent checks at the Kerem Shalom crossing, which prevent the entry of weapons, Hamas manages to control essential supplies like food, fuel, and gas entering the Strip. Security officials admit that Hamas profits from the approximately 600 daily aid trucks, collecting taxes and generating revenue to sustain its operations and acquire weapons. However, the IDF stresses that this income does not translate into significant military rearmament but rather helps Hamas govern. "Today, Hamas lacks raw materials like before, and it is in severe ammunition distress. Hamas currently manages tens of thousands of operatives, but some are new, young recruits replacing experienced ones who were eliminated or injured," a senior security official explained. He added that Hamas's training capabilities are diminished due to a lack of weapons and the need for theoretical exercises over practical ones, leaving the organization primarily on the defensive.

The IDF states it is "implementing policy" and does not make political decisions, implying that the continued presence of Hamas is due to the absence of a forward-looking strategy from the political echelon. Security officials express deep skepticism about Hamas's willingness to disarm, viewing any such proposals as a "facade." They believe that for Hamas, relinquishing its weapons would mean ceasing to exist. The prolonged conflict has also placed a heavy burden on the reserve forces, with many having served over 500 days since October 7th. This strain necessitates difficult decisions regarding future reserve duty, with plans to potentially reduce and spread out forces where possible due to the impact on reservists' civilian lives and families.