Poll Shows Opposition Bloc Edging Netanyahu's Camp by One Seat

A new public opinion poll in Israel indicates that the opposition bloc of Zionist parties is narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp by a single seat, with the Joint List securing 8 seats. The survey, published by the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation (Kan 11), shows Gadi Eisenkot, head of the "Yashar" party and former IDF Chief of Staff, leading Netanyahu in terms of seat allocation and suitability for the premiership.

According to the poll, "Yashar" would win 23 seats if elections were held today, two seats more than the Likud party. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and his "B'Yachad" alliance, which includes opposition leader Yair Lapid, would garner 12 seats. The bloc of parties opposing Netanyahu is projected to win 52 seats, compared to 51 for Netanyahu's camp, plus an additional four seats for the Hendel-Zelicha alliance, whose allegiance remains undecided.

Arab representation, divided between the Tripartite Joint List and the United List, is expected to secure 13 seats in total, with the Joint List taking 8 and the United List taking 5. The poll detailed seat projections for various parties: "Yashar" (23), Likud (21), "B'Yachad" (12), "Yisrael Beiteinu" (9), "Democrats" (8), "Otzma Yehudit" (8), "Shas" (8), "United Torah Judaism" (8), the Tripartite Joint List (8), "Religious Zionism" (6), the United List (5), and the Hendel-Zelicha alliance (4). Notably, "Am Israel Chai," led by former officer Ofer Winter, failed to pass the electoral threshold, a setback for Netanyahu's bloc as Winter had previously pledged his support.

Regarding suitability for prime minister, Eisenkot leads with 41% of respondents' support, compared to Netanyahu's 38%, with 21% deeming neither suitable. Netanyahu, however, leads Bennett in a direct comparison, with 40% support versus Bennett's 35%, and 25% finding both unsuitable. Among opposition voters specifically, Eisenkot received 35% support, compared to Bennett's 23%, with 42% believing neither is fit for the role.

The poll also addressed public concerns following a "Flydubai" incident, with 45% expressing fear of flying foreign airlines. Regarding responsibility for the incident, 43% blamed the UAE and 32% blamed Israel. Minister of Transportation Miri Regev received a "generally not good" rating from 66% of respondents. Three years after the October 7th attacks, 67% of participants fear a similar event could recur. Furthermore, 54% believe political considerations were the reason Israeli hostages were not returned earlier from Gaza, following statements by the former head of the Captives and Missing Persons Directorate.