Smotrich's Term: Promises, Threats, and Shifting Red Lines

As the upcoming elections approach, Israeli Minister of Finance and Religious Zionism Chairman Bezalel Smotrich concludes a term holding significant power in both the Finance Ministry and as a minister in the Defense Ministry, with authority over West Bank settlement affairs. Throughout his tenure, Smotrich made numerous strong declarations, took responsibility for failures after the October 7th attacks, set red lines regarding the war and Hamas deals, threatened coalition crises, and pledged economic reforms. While some policies shifted according to his stance, in other instances, reality moved in directions he opposed, yet he remained in government.

Smotrich's political career has been marked by strong statements, sometimes followed by retractions. Following a 2023 terror attack in Hawara, he stated the village should be "erased," but later apologized, clarifying he did not intend harm to innocents. After October 7th, he publicly accepted responsibility for the security failure, stating the leadership failed to protect citizens, but did not resign. He also opposed hostage deals, deeming them dangerous and warning Prime Minister Netanyahu that canceling an order to conquer Rafah would jeopardize the government's existence. Despite his opposition to an approved hostage deal, Smotrich remained in the coalition, explaining his decision in January 2025 as driven by "national responsibility for victory and security," and that the deal could no longer be stopped even by threatening to bring down the government.

A key area where Smotrich's actions aligned closely with his declarations is West Bank settlement. Prior to the government's formation, settlement was his top priority. During his term, he utilized his Defense Ministry powers to advance construction, regularization, and development in the West Bank. This included significant approvals for land and settlement changes by the cabinet and the Central Command chief, increasing the number of approvals since the government's establishment. A symbolic move was the return of families to the settlement of Kedumim, which Smotrich hailed as "erasing the disgrace of the expulsion."

However, other promised areas saw less progress. Smotrich entered the Finance Ministry amid public concern over the cost of living, a challenge amplified by the ongoing war. While the economy functioned under emergency conditions and some economic measures, like increased taxation on bank profits, were advanced, his term also saw a high deficit and credit rating downgrades. Rating agencies cited the war, increased defense spending, political uncertainty, and fiscal concerns. The cost of living remained a weak point, with prices rising and anti-inflation promises competing with wartime priorities and extraordinary government expenses.

Regarding the sensitive issue of military conscription, Smotrich's party, which draws from a population with high service and reserve duty rates, remained in a coalition that advanced arrangements for yeshiva students' conscription, a move that faced opposition even within parts of its own constituency. The overall picture of Smotrich's term is mixed. He can point to tangible achievements, particularly in West Bank settlement, but also to retracted statements, shifted red lines, and partially or incompletely fulfilled promises. His ultimate test before voters lies in the gap between his pledges and their actual implementation.