Secret Hamas Intermediary Reveals Sinwar's 'Earthquake' Warning Before Oct. 7

Soufian Abu Zeida, a former Palestinian Authority minister and Gaza resident, has emerged from the shadows to reveal his role as the intermediary who conveyed a dramatic warning from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to Israel weeks before the October 7th attacks. Dubbed "Coal Eyes" in an earlier Haaretz investigation, Abu Zeida provided an exclusive interview from Geneva, Switzerland, detailing the notes he took from Sinwar and his meetings with Israeli security officials.

Abu Zeida explained that his connection to Hamas was rekindled through secret negotiations for prisoner exchanges. In March 2022, Ghazi Hamad contacted him, seeking his help to advance talks concerning the bodies of fallen soldiers and two Israeli civilians held by Hamas. Sinwar, Abu Zeida stated, trusted him with this task due to his connections. He met with Sinwar multiple times, relaying Hamas's priorities, which included the release of sick individuals, children, and female prisoners.

On August 1, 2022, Abu Zeida met with the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, who expressed a desire to remove obstacles for Gaza, including worker entry and infrastructure solutions, linking it to the success of a deal. Abu Zeida conveyed these details to Sinwar. The critical warning came on September 14, 2023, when Sinwar urgently summoned Abu Zeida. Sinwar dictated a message, which Abu Zeida wrote down, containing the word "Zilzal" (earthquake) and a demand for the release of all prisoners before the end of September. Abu Zeida interpreted this as a negotiation tactic, not a direct threat of war.

Immediately after the meeting, Abu Zeida informed his associates, Mohammed Dahlan and Samir al-Masharawi, in the UAE. He then relayed the message in Hebrew via WhatsApp to his Shin Bet contact. Within half an hour, the Shin Bet called him back, seeking clarification. He met with a Shin Bet commander, referred to as "Oscar," on September 15, 2023, to discuss Sinwar's intentions, though Abu Zeida lacked further insight beyond the message itself.

Reflecting on the events, Abu Zeida believes both Hamas and Israel underestimated the situation. He suggests Sinwar exaggerated Hamas's strength, while Israel underestimated his willingness to launch such an operation. He questions why he alone should have understood the full gravity of the "Zilzal" warning when Israel's intelligence apparatus did not. He also mentioned that the UAE president likely spoke with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu about the warning.

On the morning of October 7th, Abu Zeida witnessed the unfolding events from his home in Jabalia, seeing rockets and an Israeli military jeep with a hostage. He realized the gravity of the situation, stocking up on supplies as he foresaw the destruction of buildings and the arrival of Israeli tanks. He expressed sorrow for the Gazan civilians who celebrated the initial attacks, knowing the devastating consequences that awaited them.