US Considers Sanctions on Israel Tied to Election Outcomes

Significant shifts in U.S.-Israel relations are not expected before Israel's elections and the formation of a new government, according to Ynet political commentator Itamar Eichner. However, future U.S. policy toward Israel, including potential sanctions, could become more stringent if the current coalition remains in power, sources familiar with U.S.-Israel relations suggest. Following U.S. midterm elections, Israel may face a challenging period as declining public support in America could translate into concrete political actions. Sources indicate that "Judea and Samaria are Israel's weak spot in Washington today," citing U.S. anger over settler violence and multiple congressional initiatives targeting settlements and settlers. Two such initiatives narrowly failed to pass in the past week.

On October 1, six Democratic House Representatives introduced the "Stop the Settlements Act." This bill, authored by Joaquin Castro, Madeleine Dean, Don Beyer, Greg Casar, Sara Jacobs, and Veronica Escobar, is reportedly no longer confined to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. A total of 40 Democrats, including mainstream figures like Steve Lynch, Bennie Thompson, Rosa DeLauro, Ro Khanna, and Pramila Jayapal, are advocating for sanctions that could target Israeli ministers and ban imports from settlements. The proposed legislation mandates sanctions against individuals involved in establishing new settlements or outposts in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza, constructing related infrastructure, developing the E1 area, or relocating citizens to settlements. These sanctions could include asset freezes, visa cancellations, and entry bans. The bill also allows for financial and banking restrictions against those supporting or expanding existing settlements, potentially even for indirectly aiding such actions, with building plan approvals serving as a possible basis for sanctions. Israeli ministers and even the Prime Minister could be subject to these measures. Provisions concerning E1 infrastructure and construction lack a start date, suggesting potential retroactive application. U.S. citizens, including settlers with dual citizenship, are exempt, and the bill does not define "settlement" or mention East Jerusalem. The U.S. President would determine who falls under the sanctions. Despite current Republican control of Congress and the Trump administration, the bill's proponents are looking ahead to the next congressional term. A senior Democratic Party official stated that the leadership's ability to block such proposals depends on Israel's election results, implying that a return of the same coalition would lead to the proposals advancing.

Concurrently, a Senate initiative led by Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen was narrowly defeated 51-48. All Democratic senators except John Fetterman voted in favor, joined by Republican Senator Rand Paul. Van Hollen's proposal, based on Section 502B, would have required the State Department to report within 30 days on American deaths caused by settlers or Israeli security forces since 2022, and on the detention of Palestinian children. Failure to submit the report would have suspended most U.S. military aid to Israel. U.S. expert Kobi Barda expressed concern on X about potential repercussions post-election. General Sean Saline, responsible for security coordination in Judea and Samaria, reportedly sends critical reports to the U.S. administration regarding regional anarchy and the IDF and police's inability to maintain control. Israel contends that this information is one-sided and reflects Palestinian narratives. Sources indicate significant dissatisfaction within the current U.S. administration regarding events in Judea and Samaria, and suggest that U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee may not fully represent the administration's sentiments, potentially aligning more with settler interests.

Furthermore, the U.S. did not condemn sanctions imposed by the UK and 12 other countries on settlements, nor the strong accusations of "ethnic cleansing" by British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband. This lack of U.S. support is seen by sources as a significant blow to Israel, sending a problematic signal globally. The possibility of U.S. measures against Israeli military units involved in excessive violence against Palestinians is also under consideration. The Biden administration previously considered action against the Netzah Yehuda battalion but backed down after Israeli pressure. A more stringent option involves restricting the use of U.S. weapons by specific units or in certain areas. Another potential step includes severing ties with IDF or Israeli police officers implicated in settler violence. "This is not necessarily going to happen, but it is on the table," a source stated, emphasizing that the situation in Congress has become "much more serious."