US Considers Sanctions on Israel, Tied to Election Outcome

US-Israel relations could see further escalation, including potential sanctions, depending on the composition of the next Israeli government, according to sources familiar with Washington's perspective. No significant actions are expected before the upcoming Israeli elections and the formation of a new government. Following the US midterm elections, Israel may face a more challenging period as declining public support for Israel in the US is anticipated to translate into policy decisions.

Sources indicate that the "West Bank" (Judea and Samaria) has become a weak point for Israel in Washington, with anger directed at settler violence. Initiatives targeting settlements and settlers are advancing in Congress, with two such proposals nearly passing recently. Six Democratic representatives introduced the "Stop the Settlements Act" last Thursday, aiming to impose mandatory sanctions on any foreign entity involved in establishing new settlements, expanding existing ones, or building in the E1 area. These sanctions could include asset freezes, visa revocations, and entry bans to the US. The proposal also allows for sanctions against those who maintain or expand existing settlements, potentially affecting ministers and even the Prime Minister. While the current Congress is unlikely to pass the bill due to the Republican majority and the Trump administration, proponents are already looking towards the next legislative session.

A separate Senate proposal by Senator Chris Van Hollen, which narrowly failed, would have required the State Department to report on the deaths of Americans and the arrest of Palestinian children by Israeli forces since 2022. Failure to submit the report would have halted most security aid to Israel. Experts suggest that the situation may worsen after the midterm elections, with one commentator expressing concern that "we have not reached the bottom of the abyss."

US officials reportedly receive difficult reports regarding perceived anarchy and inaction by the IDF and police in the West Bank. However, Israeli officials contend that the information provided to the Americans is one-sided and reflects the Palestinian narrative. The current US administration is reportedly angered by the situation in the West Bank, with the US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Harkavy, not necessarily representing the administration's full stance and sometimes perceived as a representative of the settlers.

Further concerning signs include the US's failure to condemn sanctions imposed by Britain and 12 other countries against settlements, and harsh accusations of "ethnic cleansing" by British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband. This lack of US backing is seen as a "slap in the face" to Israel. The possibility of US measures against military units involved in violence against Palestinian civilians, or restricting the use of American weapons by certain units, is also reportedly on the table. Such actions have been considered before, such as against the Netzah Yehuda battalion, but were ultimately not implemented due to significant Israeli pressure.