Israel's Defense Assessment Lacked Scenario of Hijacked Airliner

A recent assessment of threats presented to Israel's Prime Minister did not include the scenario of a passenger plane en route to Israel being hijacked, according to Ynet military correspondent Yossi Yehoshua. This oversight highlights a key lesson from recent events, including the October 7th attacks: not all threats can be predicted, and specific warnings are not always available. The successful, albeit miraculous, landing of a Flydubai flight in Saudi Arabia by its crew and Israeli passengers, despite a lack of intelligence warning, underscores the need for constant readiness in the volatile Middle East.

The defense establishment's threat assessment, which covers fronts from Hamas in Gaza and Judea and Samaria to Iran and the wider region, is continuously updated. However, the process of compiling and approving such assessments can lag behind rapidly changing realities. The article notes that even a single tweet, such as one from then-US President Donald Trump, can alter the strategic landscape.

Currently, Iran is a primary focus, with assessments suggesting that US pressure might force the regime to choose between a deal or confrontation. While a preemptive Iranian strike is considered unlikely, the possibility of Iran acting preemptively if it suspects an Israeli attack exists. The upcoming elections in the US and Israel are also seen as potential windows of opportunity for Iran to advance its nuclear program.

Despite the current assessment indicating no imminent Iranian attack, the IDF is preparing for potential escalations. In Gaza, there is a specific warning about Hamas attempting to abduct a soldier, leading to heightened readiness. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is not seen as an immediate threat but is rebuilding its capabilities. The situation in Judea and Samaria is described as more volatile, with increased friction and the potential for elections to ignite tensions.

The core lesson from October 7th is that intelligence warnings are insufficient on their own. They must be understood, translated into actionable decisions, and implemented promptly. The article stresses the importance of not only anticipating threats but also ensuring Israel has the means to respond effectively if they materialize, emphasizing that readiness is paramount in a region where reality can shift instantly.