Netanyahu Faces Challenges as Opposition Bloc Grapples With Key Decisions Ahead of Election

With 30 days remaining until the election, both major political blocs are entering the final stretch facing complex decisions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is navigating a difficult public campaign, marked by a sharp decline in polls and reports of intelligence warnings prior to October 7th. Meanwhile, the leaders of the "change bloc" (opposing Netanyahu) met at Yair Lapid's home but remain divided on crucial strategic questions.

Netanyahu's primary goal is to regain lost mandates for the Likud party and strengthen his bloc. He is attempting to appeal to the moderate, state-oriented right, which has seemingly disappeared from his list. This strategy is evident in his public distancing from extremist coalition figures, including refusing to be photographed with Itamar Ben-Gvir, removing Tali Gottlieb, and sidelining Yaakov Bardugo. Concurrently, he has secured a spot on the Likud list for former Labor party member Eli Goldschmidt. Netanyahu is also working to prevent the loss of right-wing votes to parties like Noam and the ultra-Orthodox Public party, which are polling below the electoral threshold, potentially by encouraging their withdrawal.

Another challenge for Netanyahu is the "Winter dilemma." Polls show him fluctuating between four and six mandates, currently placing him above the electoral threshold. While Netanyahu criticizes and expresses distrust towards Winter, he has not launched a full-scale attack, employing a calculated risk management approach against internal rivals.

The opposition bloc must also resolve three critical issues. First, leadership: whether to rally behind the largest party, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar," and present a clear candidate for prime minister, or maintain ambiguity about leadership and the term "bloc leader." Second, their stance on Arab parties is contentious. Leaders are debating whether to openly defend cooperation, citing the experience with Ra'am and the advantage of a majority opposing Netanyahu, or to follow polls indicating public opposition to such a move. Third, campaign focus: whether to sharply attack Netanyahu to energize their base, even at the risk of alienating soft-right voters, how to clarify that Winter is not part of their bloc without boosting him, and whether to invest in attacks on Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlikha.

While most party leaders believe clear decisions are necessary, some argue that maintaining ambiguity is the key to victory.