Israel's Election Hinges on National Identity, Not Politics

The upcoming Israeli election will be decided by a single, fundamental question: whether Israeli society sees itself as independent or as a collection of subjects, according to analyst Amnon Abramovich. He argues that traditional political divides like left versus right, and the focus on "Netanyahu or not Netanyahu," have become irrelevant. Abramovich contends that the failures surrounding the October 7th Hamas attack should be the paramount issue, criticizing the current government for seeking public trust despite its perceived shortcomings.

He highlights the government's rhetoric, such as claims of "victory for generations" and downplaying threats that have allegedly already been neutralized, as examples of disrespecting public intelligence. Abramovich also points to a deteriorating international standing for Israel, noting strained relations with the US and potential sanctions from European countries, including Portugal, which previously aided Israel. He contrasts this with past European support after operations like Cast Lead.

Abramovich suggests that while figures like Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman have relevant experience, public preference, according to polls, leans towards Benny Gantz, who is seen as the antithesis of the current prime minister in terms of integrity and humility. He also critiques the proliferation of small parties, estimating that most will siphon votes from the ruling coalition rather than the opposition. The analyst touches on internal coalition disputes, such as between the Likud and figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, as performative.

Looking ahead, Abramovich notes that the Justice Ministry will be a key portfolio in the next government, with potential contenders like Yariv Levin, Tali Gottlieb, and Simcha Rothman. He also mentions the formation of fringe parties, including one led by the wife of Yigal Amir, the assassin of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, questioning whether Netanyahu would appoint such a party to a ministerial role in a bid for survival. Abramovich concludes by dissecting perceived inconsistencies in Netanyahu's recent UN speech, including the actions of his military secretary and the handling of the hostage situation compared to his brother's actions in Entebbe.