Israeli Elections Frame Around Netanyahu Identity, Not Policy

Despite expectations of a political reset and national unity following the October 7th attacks, Israeli politics has rapidly reverted to its pre-war divisions, with upcoming elections centering on the identity of Benjamin Netanyahu rather than policy debates. The closing of candidate lists has highlighted this polarization, with parties advocating for unity forced to choose sides. Figures like former ministers Tzachi Hanegbi and Benny Gantz, who initially emphasized unity, have either withdrawn or aligned with specific blocs, while Netanyahu has solidified his Likud party's list around his loyalists.

Political scientists note a trend of "negative partisanship" and "emotional polarization," where voters are driven more by opposition to the other side than by support for their own. In this context, Netanyahu has become a symbol for his supporters, representing a broader struggle between the electorate and unelected power centers, traditional Israeli identity versus liberal elites, and the social periphery against established institutions in law, media, and academia. For his opponents, Netanyahu embodies a threat to state institutions, the rule of law, and Israel's liberal character.

The October 7th events, rather than fostering unity, have been interpreted through these existing partisan lenses. One side emphasizes security establishment failures and political leadership's shortcomings, while the other places ultimate responsibility on the prime minister, encapsulated by the phrase "you are the head, you are guilty." This division colors interpretations of all issues, from Iran and the judicial overhaul to the economy.

Consequently, a genuine "unity party" struggles to find political traction. The deep entrenchment of identities across political, cultural, and religious lines leaves little room for a centrist platform. Any significant event, whether security-related or economic, is likely to be absorbed into the existing "pro-Netanyahu" or "anti-Netanyahu" narrative, rather than shifting the fundamental axis of the election. The upcoming elections, therefore, are paradoxically returning to the pre-October 7th dynamic, focusing on the singular question of Netanyahu himself.