Senior Fatah Official Reveals Sinwar's "Earthquake" Warning to Israel Before Oct. 7

A senior Fatah official, Soufian Abu Zaida, revealed in a recent interview that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar delivered a direct warning to Israel about an impending "earthquake" just weeks before the October 7th attacks. The message was conveyed during negotiations between Israel and Hamas in September 2023.

According to Abu Zaida, he met with Sinwar on September 14th. Initially, the conversation focused on Gaza and the "prisoner file." Sinwar, described as calm, then asked Abu Zaida to write down a message for Israel. He stated that by the end of September, "cards that will cause an earthquake in the negotiation process" would be placed on the table, and Israel should prepare for "emptying the prisons."

Abu Zaida confirmed with Sinwar that he should deliver the message verbatim. After the meeting, Abu Zaida informed Fatah officials, including Mohammed Dahlan, and then relayed the message to Israeli contacts in both Arabic and Hebrew to avoid any translation errors. He reported that Israeli officials contacted him shortly after, questioning if the message was accurate and expressing significant concern, stating that "no one in Israel, meaning the security establishment, slept last night."

Israeli officials, including the head of the negotiation team Adi Rotem and the Southern Command commander, met with Abu Zaida the following morning in Ashkelon. They inquired about the context of Sinwar's warning and his demeanor during the meeting, which Abu Zaida described as calm. Sinwar's primary concern, Abu Zaida noted, was whether the message had been successfully delivered.

Despite these exchanges and months of negotiations, the "earthquake" warning was not fully understood or acted upon, and the deal did not materialize. Abu Zaida returned to Gaza on October 5th, with plans to meet Sinwar again on October 8th, two days after the devastating Hamas attack that defied the prior warnings.