Senior Fatah Official Reveals Sinwar's Pre-Oct. 7 "Earthquake" Warning to Israel

A senior Fatah official, Soufian Abu Zaida, revealed in a recent interview that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar delivered a direct warning to Israel about an impending "earthquake" just weeks before the October 7th attacks. The message was conveyed during negotiations between Israel and Hamas in September 2023.

Abu Zaida recounted a meeting with Sinwar on September 14th, where Sinwar, appearing calm, instructed him to relay a specific message to Israeli officials. Sinwar stated that by the end of September, "cards would be placed on the table that would cause an earthquake in the negotiation process, and they must prepare themselves for the emptying of prisons." Abu Zaida confirmed he asked Sinwar if he wanted the message delivered verbatim, to which Sinwar replied affirmatively, emphasizing its precise wording.

Following the meeting, Abu Zaida informed other Fatah officials and then transmitted the message, in both Arabic and Hebrew, through an Israeli liaison channel. He reported that Israeli officials contacted him shortly after, expressing surprise and asking for confirmation of the message's authenticity and context. They then requested an urgent meeting the following morning in Ashkelon.

During the September 25th meeting in Ashkelon, Abu Zaida met with the head of the negotiation team, Adi Rotem, and the commander of the Southern Command. They expressed concern, stating that "no one in Israel, meaning the security establishment, slept last night." They inquired about the context of Sinwar's message and his demeanor, which Abu Zaida described as calm, not angry or agitated.

Despite the exchange of messages and meetings, the "earthquake" cards were not revealed, the deal did not materialize, and the warning's full meaning remained unknown until the October 7th attack. Abu Zaida returned to Gaza on October 5th, scheduled to meet Sinwar again on October 8th, but the planned negotiations and warnings ultimately failed to prevent the Hamas assault.