Abraham Accords Shift Regional Diplomacy, Security Cooperation Six Years On

Six years after their signing, the Abraham Accords have evolved from a diplomatic initiative into a new regional reality, fundamentally altering Middle Eastern diplomacy, according to political analyst Roman Yanushevsky. Signed in September 2020 between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, with Morocco later joining and Sudan expressing intent, the Accords represent a departure from the previous paradigm where Arab normalization with Israel was contingent on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Instead, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco pursued normalization based on their own state, economic, and strategic interests, a move not supported by Palestinian leadership.

While the number of signatory nations might seem modest, Yanushevsky emphasizes the practical impact, particularly between Israel and the UAE. Trade, air travel, investment, and business cooperation have surged, further facilitated by a free trade agreement. Unexpectedly, normalization has also bolstered logistical routes through Israel and Jordan, offering an alternative to maritime shipping disrupted by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, demonstrating how regional crises can strengthen existing cooperation channels.

Security cooperation has emerged as another significant area, driven by shared perceptions of regional threats, notably from Iran. This has fostered ties between defense establishments and companies, including in drone technology. Yanushevsky cautions against viewing these nations as a unified bloc, noting that cooperation is pragmatic and based on converging interests rather than formal alliances, creating a new model of issue-specific collaboration.

Relations with Morocco carry a unique dimension due to deep historical and human ties, fostering not just diplomatic and economic links but also public engagement through tourism and agricultural projects. The recent elevation of diplomatic representation signifies a growing stability in these ties.

The war in Gaza, following the October 7th Hamas attack, has been the most severe test for the Accords. While it complicated potential normalization with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco did not sever ties with Israel. However, interactions have become more cautious due to public sentiment, highlighting a distinction between state-level normalization and broader societal reconciliation. Yanushevsky suggests that a "warm peace" across the entire region remains overly optimistic.

Saudi Arabia remains a key player, pursuing its own strategy and leveraging relations with Washington. Yanushevsky believes any Saudi-Israeli normalization would be part of a broader regional deal, acknowledging that the Palestinian issue, while not a prerequisite for current normalization, remains relevant, as demonstrated by the Gaza war's impact on regional dynamics.

Ultimately, the Abraham Accords have reshaped regional logic, enabling cooperation based on shared interests, such as countering Iran, economic opportunities, and trade routes, overriding the previous diplomatic formula that linked Arab-Israeli rapprochement to the Palestinian issue. For Palestinians, this has meant Arab states forging closer ties with Israel independently of Palestinian statehood, yet the Accords have not resolved the Palestinian problem itself, underscoring the complex interplay between normalization and the conflict.