Abraham Accords Reshape Middle East Dynamics Six Years On
Six years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations have fundamentally altered regional dynamics, moving past the long-standing prerequisite of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Initially, normalization with Israel was contingent on a Palestinian state's establishment, a rule bypassed by Egypt and Jordan historically and now effectively dismantled by the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. These nations prioritized their own economic and strategic interests, proceeding with normalization without Palestinian consent, a move heavily criticized by the Palestinians.
While the number of signatories remains modest, with only Kazakhstan joining formally in November 2025 (though it already had ties with Israel), the tangible outcomes are significant. Trade between Israel and the UAE has reached nearly $14.5 billion since September 2020, with a free trade agreement boosting business. Passenger traffic between the UAE and Israel surged over 70% in 2025, with up to 136 direct flights weekly. The OECD notes sustained trade growth with the UAE, Morocco, and Bahrain, even during the Gaza war. Unexpectedly, land routes through Israel and Jordan have become viable alternatives for East-West logistics following Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, enhancing Israeli-Arab infrastructure.
Security cooperation has also deepened, driven by shared concerns, particularly regarding Iran. Defense ministries and companies, especially in drone technology, have seen increased collaboration. However, analysts caution against viewing this as a unified military bloc, as interests do not fully align across all participants. Morocco's normalization is further bolstered by its significant Jewish diaspora in Israel and a long history of Jewish presence, fostering emotional and cultural ties alongside state-level agreements. This has led to increased tourism and agricultural cooperation, culminating in the recent upgrade of liaison offices to full embassies.
The Gaza war presented the most significant test for the Accords. While some analysts believe Hamas's attack aimed to derail Saudi Arabia's potential accession, the agreements have largely endured. Despite heightened regional tensions and public outcry in Arab nations, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have not severed diplomatic ties. The Washington Institute reported in 2025 that the Accords' architecture withstood severe strain, with trade and security cooperation continuing in parallel to Gaza developments. However, this normalization is primarily with elites, not broad societal reconciliation, as evidenced by limited public enthusiasm and modest tourism from Gulf states prior to October 7th.
Saudi Arabia remains outside the Accords, influenced by regional leadership competition with Abu Dhabi and its own strategic gains from the Trump administration, including non-NATO ally status and defense deals, without reciprocating with Israeli recognition. Despite this, Riyadh's eventual normalization with Israel is seen as a matter of time due to converging factors. The potential inclusion of Kuwait, and past discussions with Indonesia and Azerbaijan, signal shifting regional norms. The true impact of the Accords is demonstrated by a recent meeting of military chiefs from Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt under CENTCOM in Germany, focused on Iran, a shared threat proving a more potent unifier than formal agreements. For Palestinians, the Accords confirm that Arab states can normalize with Israel independently of a Palestinian state, rendering the issue no longer a prerequisite for regional peace.
