New Voters and Shifting Alliances to Shape Israel's Next Election

Israel's upcoming 26th Knesset elections, anticipated in October 2026, are poised for significant shifts influenced by a large cohort of new voters and potential cracks in traditional voting blocs. Approximately 640,000 young Israelis will cast their ballots for the first time, a demographic that could impact election outcomes. Recent studies by the Israel Democracy Institute highlight key factors affecting voter turnout and patterns.

A survey of 18- to 22-year-olds revealed strong intentions to vote, with 80% to 95% expressing certainty or belief they will participate. Notably, secular Jewish youth showed the highest conviction, while 87% of Arab youth indicated plans to vote, suggesting a potential rise in Arab voter turnout. Despite high voting intent, over half of young respondents expressed low trust in politicians.

The voting mechanism within the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community, historically characterized by high and consistent turnout, is showing signs of strain. Decades of strong group, religious, and institutional motivations have ensured high participation for Haredi parties. However, internal disputes, rabbinical directives, and dissatisfaction with party conduct have previously led to dips in Haredi voter turnout.

Research points to three emerging challenges for the Haredi bloc: the contentious conscription law, with only 28% of Haredim rating their political leadership's success in advancing their interests highly; a fractured "Torah opinion" due to criticism from various religious factions; and the rise of "Modern Haredi" individuals post-October 7th, who may be more inclined to vote outside their traditional bloc.

Historical data from the 16th Knesset (2003) to the 24th Knesset (2021) shows fluctuating overall voter turnout, peaking at 72.4% in 2015 and dipping to 67.44% in 2021. The upcoming election's turnout will be closely watched to see how these new dynamics play out.