New Voters and Cracks in Haredi Bloc to Shape 2026 Israeli Election Turnout
Ahead of the 2026 Knesset elections, two new studies from the Israel Democracy Institute are examining factors that could significantly influence voter turnout. Approximately 640,000 young Israelis will be eligible to vote for the first time, representing a substantial bloc with the potential to impact election results. A May 2026 survey of 18-22 year olds indicated high intent to vote, with 80% to 95% expressing certainty or likelihood of participation. Secular Jewish respondents were most decisive, while 87% of Arab respondents planned to vote, suggesting a potential rise in Arab voter turnout.
Despite high voting intentions, over half of young respondents across all groups expressed low trust in politicians generally. The studies also highlight potential shifts within the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community. Historically, a strong "locking mechanism" of community, religious authority, and social oversight ensured high turnout for Haredi parties. However, this mechanism shows signs of weakening, with precedents from 2009, 2015, and 2021 demonstrating how internal disputes and rabbinical directives have previously affected Haredi voting patterns.
For the upcoming 2026 elections, three specific "cracks" are identified: the ongoing conscription law crisis, where only 28% of Haredi respondents in a June 2026 poll rated their political leadership's success in advancing their interests highly; a fractured consensus on "the will of the Torah" due to internal criticism; and the rise of "modern Haredi" identity post-October 7th, a group potentially less likely to vote strictly along sectarian lines.
The article also provides historical voter turnout data from the 16th Knesset (2003) through the 24th Knesset (2021), showing fluctuations in overall participation rates. For instance, the 20th Knesset election in 2015 saw a final turnout of 72.4%, while the 24th Knesset election in 2021 recorded the lowest turnout among the examined elections at 67.44%.
