Record Number of First-Time Voters Set to Impact Israel's 2026 Knesset Elections

A new analysis by Points, published on Wednesday, reveals that Israel's 2026 Knesset elections will see the largest influx of first-time voters since the state's founding. Approximately 595,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 are expected to vote for the first time, representing about 8.7% of all eligible voters. This surge is projected to influence political balances across various regions.

The total number of eligible voters is estimated to reach 6.8 million, a 9.4% increase from the 6.2 million eligible voters in the November 2022 elections. Jerusalem leads in new voter growth with around 60,000 first-time voters, three times more than Tel Aviv-Yafo, which has about 20,000. Other cities with significant new voter numbers include Bnei Brak (19,000), Haifa (15,000), Petah Tikva (14,000), Rishon LeZion (13,500), Ashdod (13,000), and Beersheba (12,000).

Small, rapidly growing communities with young populations, such as Kfar Silver (69% new voters), Beit Berl (64%), Migdal Oz (53%), and Kerem B'Yavneh (50%), show the highest percentages of new voters. Among larger cities, Elad stands out with 24% of its electorate being first-time voters. The analysis also found a correlation between socioeconomic status and voter renewal rates, with higher rates in lower socioeconomic areas, particularly among Haredi and Arab populations.

The Haredi sector is the main driver of electoral growth, contributing about 105,000 new voters, which is nearly 16% of its eligible voters, almost double the national average. The religious-Zionist sector has 12.2% new voters, the Arab sector 10.6%, and non-sector-dominant areas about 7%. Women slightly outnumber men among new voters, comprising 50.9% overall, with higher female shares in the Haredi (54%) and Arab (52%) sectors.

Yafit Ben Haim, CEO of Points, emphasized that the upcoming elections will be significantly shaped by these new voters. She noted that political parties are increasingly using demographic and geographic data analysis to understand and influence this crucial voter segment. The influx of new voters, especially from the Haredi and Arab sectors, will be a decisive factor in the October 2026 elections.