New Party's Election Fate Hinges on Threshold, Polls Show

A new "poll of polls" from Globes indicates that the upcoming Israeli elections remain highly competitive, with the Likud and Yesh Atid parties tied for first place, each securing 22 mandates. However, both parties saw a slight decrease in support this week. Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, also weakened by one mandate, now holding 11 seats, while the Democrats maintain 9.

Other parties show stable or slightly fluctuating numbers: Shas, United Torah Judaism, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Otzma Yehudit each hold 8 mandates. The Joint List remains at 7, Religious Zionism at 6, and Ra'am at 5. Notably, a party led by Winter is consistently polling above the electoral threshold, garnering 4 mandates in most surveys. The party headed by Hillel Hanoch and Yoaz Hendel is also crossing the threshold in about half the polls, also receiving 4 mandates.

The coalition bloc, despite a minor dip, maintains a lead with 55 mandates. The opposition, excluding Arab parties, has weakened to 51 mandates, while Arab parties collectively hold 12. The crucial factor determining the overall bloc advantage appears to be whether the Hendel-Zelicha party successfully crosses the electoral threshold, a point on which current polls are divided.

Analysis suggests that if the Hendel-Zelicha party fails to pass the threshold, the coalition gains a significant advantage, potentially reaching 59 mandates compared to the opposition's 48. Conversely, if they succeed, the coalition's support drops to 51, while the opposition rises to 53. The party leaders themselves have stated they aim to form a "third bloc," potentially disrupting the established political landscape.

The article emphasizes the critical importance of the electoral threshold, recalling past elections where parties like the New Right and Zehut, and more recently Meretz, failed to cross it despite earlier polls indicating they would. This historical context suggests that the outcome for parties like Hendel-Zelicha and Winter remains uncertain, despite current projections.