Palestinian Politician Claims He Warned Israel of Hamas Attack Before Oct. 7

Dr. Soufian Abu Zaida, a fluent Hebrew-speaking Palestinian politician and former senior Fatah official, stated on Wednesday that he was the intermediary who delivered a message from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to the United Arab Emirates and Israel prior to the October 7th massacre. Abu Zaida claims he was involved in a communication channel between Israel and Hamas for about a year and a half before the war, aimed at facilitating a deal for the release of hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and easing conditions for Gazan residents.

According to Abu Zaida, this message was subsequently conveyed by UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed directly to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a claim Netanyahu denies. Abu Zaida, 66, a native of the Jabalia refugee camp, has been a prominent figure in Palestinian politics for decades. He previously served approximately 12 years in Israeli prison for involvement in terrorist activities. After his release, he held positions within the Palestinian Authority and engaged in contacts with Israel, including serving as minister for prisoner affairs and later minister for civil affairs, which involved coordination and liaison between Israelis and Palestinians since the Oslo Accords.

The report details Abu Zaida's extensive network, including a close relationship with Mohammed Dahlan, a political rival of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Abu Zaida was expelled from Fatah in 2014 along with other Dahlan loyalists, leading him to reside in Gaza after his home in Ramallah was confiscated by the Palestinian Authority. He maintained ties with Hamas figures, having met with senior Hamas official Fatah Hamad in 2010 and having been briefly kidnapped by Hamas-affiliated militants in 2006.

Abu Zaida stated in a video that he would elaborate on the message from Sinwar and the mediation efforts. The story was initially revealed in a book by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, where Abu Zaida, then unnamed for security reasons and referred to as "Coal Eyes," received Sinwar's message during talks concerning the return of bodies of fallen soldiers and two living hostages. Eldar reported that in early September, when talks stalled, Sinwar told Abu Zaida to inform the Israelis that he was planning a "big surprise" and used the word "earthquake."

Abu Zaida allegedly conveyed this to an advisor of UAE President bin Zayed, who then questioned Sinwar further. Sinwar reportedly reiterated the warning, describing an "enormous operation" and "something exceptional." Abu Zaida then relayed this message to the UAE advisor again, and on September 15th, the warning was passed to Israel's Shin Bet security agency. Following this, the then-head of Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, discussed the matter with Netanyahu, and security discussions ensued, recommending either neutralizing the threat or implementing "strong defense efforts" in Gaza. However, the assessment at the time was that Sinwar intended to capture Israeli-American researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who was held in Iraq.

Eldar reported that bin Zayed, concerned by Israel's lack of response, spoke with Netanyahu for 45 minutes to ensure the message was received. During this call, Netanyahu reportedly downplayed the threat, stating Israel was "prepared in Gaza" and anticipated any issue would arise in the West Bank. According to the report, Netanyahu did not subsequently update the then-IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, then-Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, or then-Mossad head David Barnea. Security officials cited in the report suggested that knowledge of bin Zayed's call could have given more weight to the September 15th warning and potentially altered their threat assessment.