Turkey's Growing Influence in Syria Poses New Strategic Threat to Israel

Turkey's expanding military and political presence in Syria is creating a significant new strategic threat for Israel, moving beyond mere rhetorical hostility. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an Israeli expert on Turkey, highlighted this escalating regional configuration as a major concern.

According to Yanarocak, the Hamas attack on October 7th marked a turning point, shifting Turkish policy from general support for Palestinians to closer political backing of Hamas. He also noted a change in Turkish media rhetoric, which he says increasingly delegitimizes Israel and uses IDF service to accuse Israelis.

However, Yanarocak identifies Syria as the more serious factor. Turkey has significantly increased its influence with the Syrian leadership and expanded defense cooperation with Damascus, offering military training and advisory assistance. Turkey is also a key participant in a regional mechanism involving Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, initially formed to combat ISIS and now including a coordination structure with Syria and Jordan operational since May 2025.

Yanarocak views this cooperation's geography, north and east of Israel's borders, as a potential problem, despite its official aim of fighting terrorism and supporting Syrian stability. A critical incident occurred on August 18th when Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwestern Syria, reportedly due to concerns about potential Turkish forces. Both Turkey and Damascus denied plans for a Turkish base, and Turkey condemned the Israeli action, escalating tensions.

Yanarocak sees this event as indicative of a new reality. He previously noted that Turkish military presence, particularly air defense systems, in Syria could restrict Israeli air operations and complicate potential actions targeting Iran. Turkey's continued strengthening of ties with the Syrian leadership, including defense, energy, and transport cooperation, further complicates the situation, as Ankara openly opposes Israeli operations in Syria.