Israel's Strategic Standing Transformed Three Years After Hamas Attack
Three years after the devastating Hamas attack, Israel has undergone a significant strategic transformation, shifting from a nation perceived as vulnerable to one whose adversaries fear initiating conflict. This shift is particularly evident in its current position relative to major regional threats like Iran and its proxies.
The article argues that Israel has achieved a decisive victory in the "War of Re-establishment," its first since the Yom Kippur War where it can proudly claim significant military and political achievements. This contrasts sharply with its inability to secure clear victories or deterrence in previous conflicts, including the Lebanon wars, operations in Gaza, and the Gulf War. Even Operation Defensive Shield is not seen as having established lasting deterrence.
Key to this transformation is the near-complete destruction of the Syrian regime as a significant threat to Israel. Once a major state sponsor of terrorism with a professional army and advanced weaponry, Syria no longer poses the same level of danger. While challenges remain, such as Turkish influence, they are not comparable to the former Syrian threat.
Furthermore, Hamas and Hezbollah have been severely degraded. Recent weeks have seen daily assassinations and the destruction of strongholds in both Gaza and Lebanon with minimal Israeli casualties. The article asserts that these organizations have been largely dismantled, with their infrastructure, trained fighters, weapon caches, command structures, and public support significantly diminished. While the "idea" of these groups may persist, their operational capacity is a shadow of its former self, with the vast arsenals of rockets and missiles previously held by Hezbollah and Hamas now largely gone.
Adding to this strategic shift, international actors are now indirectly managing fronts that were once solely directed at Israel. Former US President Trump is reportedly focused on the Iranian nuclear program, while Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is addressing the Houthi threat. This has placed Israel in a position where it can potentially offer assistance rather than solely seeking it. Iran, reportedly stunned by Israeli actions that eliminated its senior leadership, is cautious about provoking further Israeli responses, halting missile launches at Jordan's border. Similarly, the Houthis, after losing their leadership to Israeli strikes, have publicly stated they will not target Israeli ships, a move attributed to deterrence rather than a change of heart.
The author urges readers to remember these significant achievements and the geo-strategic shift in Israel's standing as the third anniversary of the October 7th attack approaches, amidst what is expected to be a wave of media coverage focusing on the painful memories of that day.
