Analyst: Netanyahu's Downfall Hinges on Keeping His Voters Home

Israeli political analyst Amit Segal has outlined a paradoxical strategy for the opposition aiming to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In his weekly column for Israel Hayom, Segal argues that the opposition's best chance lies not in intensifying its campaign, but in maintaining the indifference of Netanyahu's core supporters. He observes a growing sense of despair and disappointment within the anti-Netanyahu camp, which he considers a worrying sign.

Segal explains that a highly active campaign, while necessary to mobilize opposition voters, risks energizing Netanyahu's base as well. If Netanyahu's supporters turn out in numbers similar to previous elections, he is likely to remain prime minister. Therefore, the opposition faces a dilemma: an active campaign could inadvertently secure Netanyahu's victory.

The analyst also considers a scenario where the opposition's hope of securing an outright 61-seat majority fades. In this situation, he posits a critical juncture where Netanyahu's bloc might gain just one more seat than the opposition. Even with such a narrow margin, forming a government would become exceedingly complex, potentially requiring external support or abstentions from parties like Ra'am, Balad, and possibly the religious party led by Rabbi Yitzhak Goldknopf.

This scenario would present another challenge: deciding whether to hold new elections even after the opposition achieves a parliamentary majority but Netanyahu remains in power. Segal recounts a conversation where a senior opposition figure described this choice as being between "bad and very bad," later correcting himself to "Ra'am and very bad." This highlights the intricate political maneuvering required, even with a majority, to form a government, potentially necessitating difficult compromises with parties outside the main opposition bloc.