Analyst Amit Segal: Netanyahu's Defeat Hinges on Voter Apathy

Political commentator Amit Segal believes the only way to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is if his voters remain indifferent and do not turn out in large numbers. In an opinion piece for "Israel Hayom," Segal observed a pervasive sense of despair and demotivation within the opposition camp, which he suggests bodes poorly for their chances of replacing the current government.

Segal argued that a "parallel universe" strategy would be to energize the opposition's campaign. However, he asserted that this is an impossible strategy because Netanyahu's sole chance of defeat lies in voter apathy. If his supporters are motivated to vote at the same rate as in previous elections, Segal predicts Netanyahu will likely be re-elected.

Looking ahead, Segal suggested that if the opposition's hope of securing 61 seats fades, the campaign could reach a critical juncture. This point would be when Netanyahu's bloc gains a one-seat majority over the opposition. In such a scenario, even forming a government by abstaining from Arab party support from the outside would be insufficient.

Segal outlined a potential outcome where forming a government would require the active support of the United Arab List (Ra'am), abstentions from Balad, and possibly even from United Torah Judaism's Yaakov Litzman. This would result in a fragile and unpopular interim government. Conversely, the opposition would face the risk of new elections after achieving a significant majority while Netanyahu remains prime minister.

When asked about this dilemma, a senior figure in the opposition bloc reportedly corrected Segal, stating the choice was not between "bad and very bad," but rather between "Ra'am and very bad."