US Advances F-35 Sale to Saudi Arabia, Alarming Israel

The U.S. State Department has advanced a potential sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a move that significantly exceeds a typical arms deal and raises concerns in Israel. The $24.3 billion package includes 49 engines, communication and encryption systems, electronic warfare capabilities, simulators, training, and logistical support. This notification is a preliminary step in the U.S. sales process, initiating a mandatory 30-day review period by Congress.

Israel views the potential sale as a worrying diplomatic shift, as it sees the F-35 as a key security asset that Washington previously used as leverage with Riyadh. The deal is proceeding without Saudi Arabia first normalizing relations with Israel, a condition Israel had hoped would be met. While the U.S. states the deal will not alter the regional military balance, it touches upon Israel's "Qualitative Military Edge" (QME), a legal requirement for the U.S. to ensure arms sales do not compromise Israel's military superiority in the Middle East. Israel is currently the only country in the region operating the F-35.

Israeli officials had previously indicated that they would not object to Saudi Arabia acquiring F-35s, provided it was part of a full normalization agreement between the two nations. However, this linkage has not materialized, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman indicating a desire for a clear path to a two-state solution before advancing Abraham Accords-style agreements. The U.S. administration, at least for now, is not waiting for such an agreement to move forward with the F-35 sale.

Experts like Jonathan Roha from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) suggest the deal should not proceed without addressing two key issues: Saudi Arabia's concerning security and technology ties with China, and the need for a broader regional security architecture led by the U.S. that integrates Saudi Arabia and respects Israel's QME. Concerns persist regarding potential Chinese access to F-35 related technologies through Saudi Arabia, as highlighted in U.S. intelligence reports.

Even if the deal is finalized, the exact capabilities transferred to Saudi Arabia remain unclear. The jets intended for Riyadh are expected to be less advanced in certain areas than Israel's F-35I "Adir" variant, partly to maintain Israel's QME. Israel also benefits from integrating unique Israeli systems into its F-35s. While former President Trump assured Israeli leaders that Saudi Arabia would receive a reduced version of the aircraft, specific details about the capabilities, deployment restrictions, and safeguards for Israel's advantage are still pending.