Trump Considers Military Action or Deal with Iran, Consults Gulf Leaders

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday he is contemplating a significant strategic decision regarding Iran, weighing between a broad military offensive aimed at regime change or pursuing a de-escalation and settlement. This critical juncture follows a period of intense military and economic pressure on Tehran, alongside ongoing disruptions in maritime trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is expected to finalize his decision after a meeting in New York with leaders from six Gulf states Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. He stated, "I have a big decision to make. Do I want to go in and take them out or not? That's a big decision. Anything is possible."

The president's deliberation reflects the fluctuating U.S. policy towards Iran in recent months, oscillating between planning major military operations and pursuing diplomatic avenues. Despite Trump's expressed hope for a swift resolution and claims that Tehran desires an agreement, no breakthrough has occurred.

In parallel, intelligence and security developments include satellite imagery revealing earthworks for enhanced shielding above tunnel entrances at the "Pickaxe" site near the Natanz nuclear facility. The Institute for Science and International Security noted road blockades suggesting non-routine activity, possibly involving sensitive equipment. Trump issued a stern warning: "We're watching. We see there's a little activity at Pickaxe. I would tell the Iranians, don't be clever, because we're going to have to hit them very hard."

Economic and maritime pressure is intensifying. The U.S. State Department has offered up to $15 million for information targeting the financing networks of the Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force, including oil-for-cash schemes, shell companies, and financial institutions. Sanctions were also imposed on the BitBank crypto exchange and associates of businessman Babak Zanjani for facilitating commercial fund transfers through the Strait of Hormuz.

In maritime operations, U.S. Central Command reported redirecting 104 merchant ships by September 17 as part of a blockade, releasing footage of an F/A-18F fighter jet launching from the USS George H.W. Bush. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center documented an attempted interception of an oil tanker by a small boat east of Aden. Oil prices dipped to weekly lows, with Brent crude at $104.82 and WTI at $101.91, partly due to Saudi oil shipments via Oman. Saudi Arabia is also attempting to reroute cargo from Yanbu port through Bab el-Mandeb, despite Houthi drone threats.