Israel Bets on Shifting Trade Routes Amidst Bab al-Mandab Tensions

Israeli assessments suggest that the damage from the Houthi control of the Bab al-Mandab strait is manageable due to global trade and energy route shifts over the past two years. Former Israeli Navy Commander Eliezer Marom stated that while the port of Eilat is effectively closed, trade can be rerouted from East Asia to Haifa and Ashdod, bypassing the Bab al-Mandab and Red Sea.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are identified as the primary losers. Egypt faces annual losses of approximately $6 billion in Suez Canal revenues, while Saudi Arabia is hampered in its efforts to circumvent Hormuz Strait conflict impacts, losing the benefit of its eastern oil pipeline to the Red Sea. The article highlights Saudi Arabia's vulnerability despite its US-made military arsenal.

Israeli military recommendations, as reported by Haaretz, advise against a direct military strike on the Houthis. Instead, the focus should be on forming an international and regional coalition and preparing for potential Houthi actions against Israel. This aligns with previous assessments that the Houthis are not targeting Israel or the US.

Israel is also banking on a muted US response under President Trump and a reluctance from the US to engage directly in conflict. The perceived fragility of the new Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish alliance, which has not provided Saudi Arabia with adequate defense, is also a factor. Pakistan and Turkey have adopted mediation roles rather than mutual protection.

Israeli analysis indicates the Houthis' conflict is primarily with Saudi Arabia, not Israel or the US. Egypt, despite its military capabilities and financial losses, is unlikely to enter a war that outweighs the damages and offers no guaranteed outcome, favoring diplomatic solutions. Saudi Arabia, while facing Houthi targeting, rejects Israeli military support, linking relations to the Palestinian issue rather than the Bab al-Mandab.

Israel aims to leverage Saudi Arabia's situation to encourage adoption of Israeli defense systems and the Abraham Accords. However, Saudi Arabia's refusal of Israeli intervention and its financial capacity to absorb oil pipeline damage diminish Israel's prospects. The Houthi takeover exposed the immaturity of the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani alliance and the limited protective value of US bases in the Gulf.

Israeli security assessments indicate no direct threat from the Houthis, leading to recommendations against a direct strike. Politically, a strike is deemed unlikely to benefit Prime Minister Netanyahu electorally. The article concludes that the Houthi control of Bab al-Mandab has a limited impact on the global economy due to ongoing shifts in trade and energy routes. The potential for a large-scale international war is deemed weak, with diplomatic solutions favored unless the situation escalates.