Netanyahu Appears Content With Election Stalemate, Seeks to Divide Opposition

With the next Knesset elections just 41 days away, political discourse in Israel is increasingly focused on the possibility of a stalemate between the major blocs and the prospect of repeat elections. A senior figure in the "Change Bloc" (anti-Netanyahu bloc) indicated to Zman Israel that they are already preparing for the possibility of elections for the 27th Knesset in March 2027, stating, "We are preparing for it." The possibility of the opposition forming a minority government relying on Arab party votes was described as "slim, but possible."

Recent polls from Israel's three main television channels show both the pro-Netanyahu bloc and the opposition bloc moving away from the crucial 61-mandate majority. Channels 11 and 13 indicate a complete tie between the blocs, while Channel 12 shows the opposition bloc leading, though still far from a decisive victory. The pro-Netanyahu bloc includes Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party, and while Winter is unlikely to join the opposition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly fears a coalition between him and Avigdor Lieberman, or that Winter's party might not pass the electoral threshold, wasting votes.

Netanyahu is reportedly focused on consolidating his existing coalition partners: the Likud, ultra-Orthodox parties, Otzma Yehudit, and the Religious Zionist-Identity parties. He is aware of the theoretical possibility of the center-left forming a government with Arab parties and aims to prevent this by excluding parties like Yair Golan's Democrats, Ra'am, and the Joint List from forming a coalition. His strategy involves undermining the legitimacy of opposition figures like Gadi Eisenkot, portraying them as threats to national security and the IDF.

Netanyahu's campaign strategy, as seen in recent social media posts and statements from Likud officials, appears to be mirroring tactics used in the 1996 elections. The current narrative targets the Democrats as "traitors" and Ra'am as "Muslim Brotherhood" sympathizers, aiming to delegitimize them and prevent a coalition. Netanyahu seems to be leveraging recent events, including criticism of an IDF-related film, to fuel his campaign and sow division within the opposition, particularly between Lieberman and the Democrats.

Given the current polling and campaign dynamics, the most likely scenario appears to be a stalemate. This outcome would allow Netanyahu to remain in power as a caretaker prime minister with his allies for an extended period, potentially until new elections in March 2027. The President will ultimately decide whether to task a Knesset member with forming a government or call for new elections if no viable candidate emerges.