Ofer Winter's Independent Run Creates Headache for Netanyahu's Bloc

Recent polls indicate a significant shift in the Israeli political landscape, with new parties potentially impacting the established blocs. Ofer Winter's new party, along with those of other figures like Hendel and Zlicha, are polling at around four seats, while Smotrich's Religious Zionism party is projected to win six. These numbers could disrupt the long-standing bloc dynamics that have remained stable for over a year, despite recent conflicts.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a proponent of the "bloc" strategy for forming governments, faces a major challenge from Winter's independent candidacy. In the past, Netanyahu successfully united his bloc to form governments, even when his Likud party was not the largest. However, this election cycle, the disorganization within the right-wing bloc, largely attributed to Winter's decision to run alone, is causing Netanyahu significant concern.

Winter, a former brigadier general, is described as stubborn and confident, aspiring to be the next defense minister. Netanyahu's attempts to persuade Winter to join the Likud party and avoid splitting the vote failed, as Winter has reportedly refused to negotiate. Adding to Netanyahu's suspicions, he believes Winter may be aligned with Avigdor Lieberman, citing Winter's past military service under Lieberman and the presence of Sharon Shalom, a close associate of Lieberman, on Winter's strategic team. Netanyahu fears Winter might join forces with the opposition after the election.

Further complicating matters for Netanyahu is the independent run of Avi Maoz's Noam party and several small ultra-Orthodox parties that are unlikely to pass the electoral threshold. These candidacies risk wasting votes that could otherwise bolster the larger right-wing parties. The Likud party itself is polling at a low of 19-20 seats, a significant drop from the previous election, and Netanyahu is struggling to regain lost support.

Within the Likud, there is debate on how to handle Winter. Some, like Yaakov Bardugo and Minister Eli Cohen, advocate for actively working to keep Winter below the electoral threshold to minimize vote loss. Others suggest that if Winter crosses the threshold and commits to the bloc's principles, he could be a potential partner, especially given his stated loyalty to Netanyahu. Netanyahu has reportedly asked for time to consider the strategy, with no final decision yet made. Minister Miki Zohar indicated that a unified message is still pending.