Netanyahu Orders Offensive Against Ofer Winter Amid Election Concerns

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to launch an offensive against former IDF general Ofer Winter, following weeks of deliberation. The Likud party plans to portray Winter as a danger to the right-wing bloc, despite his current polling numbers suggesting he would pass the electoral threshold. The party aims to erode support for Winter among right-wing voters and prevent him from gaining momentum as the election approaches.

Initially, some Likud officials saw Winter as a potential candidate for disillusioned Likud voters who were unwilling to vote for the party. However, a senior Likud member countered that "Likud is wrong about Winter. Winter is the asset." This sentiment highlights the party's dilemma: if Winter falls below the electoral threshold, he could siphon right-wing votes, but if he surpasses it, there's no guarantee he will remain aligned with Netanyahu's bloc post-election.

The broader concern for Likud revolves around voter turnout. While the opposition's motivation is reportedly high, Likud identifies a significant group of potential voters who are undecided not on who to vote for, but whether to vote at all. These "still Bibi" voters, who have criticisms but are expected to ultimately vote Likud if they turn out, are crucial. Likud believes the election will be decided by their ability to mobilize these voters.

Internal Likud party activities, such as upcoming conventions and leadership contests, are seen as ways to engage activists and strengthen ties with the grassroots. Netanyahu's direct appeals to the right-wing base, including appearances on Channel 14, are also aimed at motivating existing supporters rather than attracting new ones. The decision to attack Winter signals that Netanyahu perceives the risk of inaction as greater than the risk of confrontation, shifting the battle to the ground game.