Injured Mujtaba Khamenei Leads Iran Towards Collapse, Intel Suggests
Intelligence assessments indicate that Mujtaba Khamenei, physically wounded during Operation "Lion's Roar," is driven by a desire for revenge following his father's death and is making independent decisions. He is reportedly surrounding himself with hardline commanders from the Revolutionary Guards, including veterans of the Iran-Iraq war. Israeli defense circles believe this path will lead the Iranian regime to ruin, according to Walla News.
The pressure on Tehran is intensifying amid a severe economic crisis and widespread difficulty for citizens in obtaining basic food supplies. Security officials assess that public frustration could erupt into rebellion against the government, or alternatively, be directed towards Israel and the United States. Additionally, a growing threat emerges from Iranian youth aged 15, who, with access to satellite internet and AI capabilities, could potentially target Israeli national infrastructure.
During preliminary discussions for operations "With the Lion" and "Lion's Roar," Israel and the U.S. presented data suggesting that 75 to 80 percent of the Iranian population opposes the regime and is on the brink. Iranian bazaar merchants, acting as a social barometer, led protests on January 8 and 9, drawing in both lower and upper economic classes, despite a brutal crackdown by Basij forces. There are expectations that citizens may take to the streets again.
Israel and the U.S. aim to leverage these trends and use influence tools to accelerate the regime's collapse, a scenario potentially occurring within one to three years, even without a military coup. Continued pressure depends on enforcing U.S. sanctions, China ceasing black market oil purchases, and the UAE halting support for Iran's banking system. Meanwhile, security sources report significant concern among Gulf states that the U.S. might reach an understanding with Iran or unilaterally withdraw from the Middle East, leaving them to confront the Iranian threat alone, similar to Saudi Arabia's vulnerability to Houthi attacks without adequate defense.
