Iran Rebuilds After Khamenei's Death as Mojtaba Plans Revenge, Israel Prepares for Conflict

Iran officially announced the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on March 1, 2026, with footage circulating on social media showing the funeral procession in Tehran attended by leaders and senior figures from terrorist organizations. Israeli security sources view parts of the funeral as an attempt to normalize and legitimize Mojtaba Khamenei's succession after he was severely wounded in the targeted killing of his father and initially hesitant to attend the ceremony. Several leaders chose to send representatives instead of attending in person.

Israeli defense officials report that Iran is gradually restoring internet access due to economic pressures and merchant demands, while maintaining tight control over public discourse. Concurrently, Iran is working around the clock to rebuild its military capabilities and revive its economy, which remains under severe sanctions. Despite these efforts, the Iranian economy continues to struggle, serving as a major pressure point on the regime.

Israel remains outside any direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, raising concerns within Israeli security about being caught off guard by potential American-Iranian agreements. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue preparing for renewed conflict with Iran or intelligence revealing imminent threats requiring immediate action. IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir reviews defense and offense plans weekly, while military intelligence expands its target database and continues striking existing targets.

Israeli assessments indicate that although the war inflicted heavy losses on Iran, neither the regime nor the Revolutionary Guards have collapsed or are close to collapse. Instead, they have begun a recovery process. A senior Israeli security official stated that Mojtaba Khamenei, fueled by a strong motivation for revenge over his father's assassination and the regime's humiliation by the IDF, is being encouraged by Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi to retaliate.

Additionally, Israeli officials warn that if Hezbollah attacks Israeli rear areas, the IDF will respond by striking targets in Beirut's Dahieh district, placing Tehran in a dilemma over whether to launch missile attacks on Israel or refrain. This ongoing tension underscores the fragile security situation in the region.