Iran Faces Internal Turmoil Amid Economic Hardship and Leadership Instability

Intelligence assessments suggest Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's Supreme Leader, is physically recovering from a past operation and is now making independent decisions, reportedly seeking revenge for his father's death. He is said to be surrounding himself with hardline commanders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including veterans of the Iran-Iraq War. Some Israeli analysts believe this could lead the regime towards collapse.

Economic difficulties are reportedly widespread in Iran, with many families struggling to afford basic necessities like meat, making daily life increasingly challenging. Security officials estimate that public frustration could manifest in two ways: either as widespread opposition to the regime or as redirected anger towards the United States or Israel. The extent to which Iranians can access information or possess the technical skills to threaten national infrastructure is unclear.

Israel and the United States are reportedly seeking to exploit and accelerate these negative trends within Iran through various influence tools. While protests are occurring, they are described as localized and not yet widespread, though security sources believe this is a matter of time. Ideas of an Iranian general defecting to lead a power shift have been considered but have not materialized.

Security assessments suggest the regime's collapse could take between one to three years. Continued pressure on Iran is seen as dependent on the enforcement of U.S. sanctions, potentially including actions against the Strait of Hormuz, and the cooperation of countries like China and the UAE, which have previously engaged in illicit oil trade with Iran.

Concerns among Gulf states include the possibility of the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran or withdrawing from the region, leaving them to manage the Iranian threat alone, similar to the situation with the Houthis in Yemen. Pre-operation discussions between the U.S. and Israel indicated that a significant majority of the Iranian population opposes the current regime. The bazaar community, a barometer of public sentiment, has been mobilizing various societal strata, including the poor and wealthy, against the regime, demonstrating resilience even in the face of violent crackdowns.