Likud Debates Strategy on Ofer Winter's Party, Plans Campaign Launch
The Likud party is set to hold crucial discussions this week regarding its strategy towards the new party formed by former IDF General Yair Golan. Two opposing approaches are on the table: launching an aggressive campaign to undermine Winter and absorb his potential voters, or adopting a softer stance, hoping his party will pass the electoral threshold and keep its votes within the right-wing bloc. This dilemma stems from Likud's past strategy of seeking a "satellite party" to attract right-wing voters hesitant to vote for Likud under Netanyahu but unwilling to support other right-wing or ultra-Orthodox parties. Such a party could potentially increase the bloc's overall vote count instead of engaging in internal competition.
However, internal Likud polls show Winter's party garnering only around 1.8% to 1.9% of the vote, falling significantly short of the 3.25% electoral threshold. This trend poses a risk of losing tens of thousands of right-wing votes by election day if it continues. Beyond the threshold concern, Likud leadership is also worried about Winter's party's commitment to Netanyahu's bloc after the elections, especially in a scenario where no single bloc achieves a clear majority, making every Knesset seat critical for coalition formation. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly voiced concerns, stating that "we still have to deal with Winter" and warning against parties that "are right-wing and go to the left," referencing past experiences.
Within Likud, there is a division of opinion on whether Winter's party is a potential asset or a liability that could siphon votes. The campaign team will re-evaluate the data this week to decide on their course of action. If Winter's chances of passing the threshold appear low, Likud may initiate an aggressive campaign to reclaim voters for itself and other bloc parties. Conversely, if he seems close to the threshold, the preferred option might be to leave him be, hoping he passes and consolidates votes within the right-wing camp.
In parallel to the deliberations on Winter, Likud is preparing for two significant campaign events. The first is a festive gathering on Thursday at Expo Tel Aviv, which will effectively serve as the campaign launch event. Likud plans a large-scale production with activists, elected officials, and candidates, featuring large screens and a show designed to signal the start of the election battle and energize the field. The second, and potentially more impactful event for Netanyahu personally, is his speech at the United Nations on September 24 in New York, where, according to Likud sources, the Prime Minister is preparing "surprises."
