Middle East Geopolitics Shift: Three Old Rules No Longer Apply

The past Jewish year, 5786, has brought fundamental geopolitical shifts to the Middle East, rendering previously held assumptions obsolete. The region is no longer operating under the old principles that once seemed immutable, according to a report by "Segodnya."

One of the first shattered illusions was the concept of distance as a guarantee against retaliation. For decades, Tehran waged hybrid warfare through proxies, maintaining a safe distance. However, in the past year, Israel directly targeted the instigator, breaking this paradigm.

Another challenged stereotype was the expectation of immediate Islamic world unity against Israel. No nation with diplomatic ties to Israel severed them, and a shared interest in containing Iran has brought Jerusalem and several Sunni monarchies closer. Furthermore, Iran's status as an untouchable power has diminished, with Israel emerging as a new type of regional player.

Israel's evolving status is evidenced by its ability to operate effectively far beyond its borders. Its military experience in multi-front conflicts has demonstrated the resilience of its state system and economy. Technological superiority has turned military actions into demonstrations, exemplified by a record nearly 3 billion euro arms deal with Greece. This has created a psychological shift where Tehran now constantly anticipates potential Israeli retaliation.

Despite military successes, Israel's military might has outpaced its ability to translate this into stable political outcomes. Iran's regime, following its leader's death, has transformed into a hardline military junta under a religious guise, and pro-Iranian proxy groups have fractured internally. The Palestinian issue remains an unresolved chronic problem, and strategic dependence on Washington's logistical and political support persists. Amidst Iran's weakening, Turkey, with its strong economy and NATO membership, is emerging as a primary contender for regional influence.