New Poll Shows Knesset Power Shift, Potential Government Crisis

A recent poll conducted by Israel's Channel 12 indicates a significant shift in the country's political landscape, with several established parties failing to cross the electoral threshold. The "Blue and White" party, for instance, is shown not making it into the Knesset. The survey results suggest that if elections were held now, the current distribution of power could lead to another governmental crisis.

The poll projects "Yashar!" led by Gadi Eisenkot, as the largest party with 25 mandates. Benjamin Netanyahu's "Likud" follows with 21 mandates, while "Be Yahad" led by Naftali Bennett is projected to receive 13 mandates. Other parties showing significant support include "New Democrats" (Yair Golan) with 10 mandates, "Yisrael Beiteinu" (Avigdor Lieberman) with 9, and "United Torah Judaism" with 8.

Several other parties are projected to gain seats, including Hadash-Ta'al (7 mandates), Shas (7), "Otzma Yehudit" (6), "Religious Zionism" (5), "Amcha Israel" (5), and Ra'am (4). Notably, "Blue and White" and the "Miluimniks" movement did not meet the electoral threshold in this poll.

The projected seat distribution presents a challenge for forming a stable government. The current governing bloc is estimated to secure only 52 seats, while opposition parties collectively garner 57. Arab political parties hold the remaining 11 seats. Even with the opposition's numerical advantage, forming a majority coalition without the direct support or abstention of Arab factions appears mathematically unfeasible.